Poland · Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 718:30

18:30 UTC

Friday, 4 September 2026

Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach · Analysis updated 23:51 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.63 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives GKS Katowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

GKS Katowice to Win

50.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.08 – 2.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Piast Gliwice win31%
Draw19%
GKS Katowice win51%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals85%
Over 3.5 goals69%
Both teams to score81%

Correct score

  • 2–26.7%
  • 1–26.5%
  • 2–35.9%
  • 1–35.7%
  • 2–15.1%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates GKS Katowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 31% / 19% / 51% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.08 goals for Piast Gliwice and 2.63 for GKS Katowice, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 81%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

  • Model confidence

    GKS Katowice to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Piast Gliwice

    GKS Katowice

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.