Stadion Miejski · Referee M. Kuropatwa · Analysis updated 23:57 UTC
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.73 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to Win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–18.6%
Why the model likes this
Puszcza Niepołomice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and 0.73 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Recent form
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Puszcza Niepołomice
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Głogów | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pogoń Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Podbeskidzie | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzów | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.