South-Africa · Premier Soccer League · Regular Season - 2913:00

11

Saturday, 16 May 2026

Pietersburg Stadium · Referee Xola Sitela, South Africa · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC

Polokwane City vs Marumo Gallants Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Polokwane City and 1.13 for Marumo Gallants, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Polokwane City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Polokwane City to Win

49.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Polokwane City win49%
Draw25%
Marumo Gallants win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Both teams to score55%

Correct score

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–08.4%
  • 0–17.1%

Why the model likes this

  • Polokwane City home form

    2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Polokwane City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 26% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.63 goals for Polokwane City and 1.13 for Marumo Gallants, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Polokwane City

  • 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sekhukhune United · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stellenbosch · 3-3 (D)
  • 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamelodi Sundowns · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Richards Bay · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Sekhukhune United · 0-1 (L)

Marumo Gallants

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Premier Soccer League table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Kaizer Chiefs321047
    2Amazulu321037
    3Sekhukhune United320116
    4Milford FC320106
    5Orlando Pirates211024
    6Stellenbosch311114
    7Mamelodi Sundowns211014
    8Polokwane City3111-14
    9Chippa United202002
    10Golden Arrows202002
    11Richards Bay3021-12
    12Durban City3021-12
    13TS Galaxy2011-11
    14Marumo Gallants2011-21
    15Siwelele3012-31
    16Kruger United3012-31

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.