Fratton Park · Analysis updated 03:19 UTC
Portsmouth vs Lincoln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.45 for Lincoln, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Portsmouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Portsmouth or Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.9%
Why the model likes this
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Portsmouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Portsmouth and 1.45 for Lincoln, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Portsmouth
Lincoln
Head-to-head
- 2024-04-27T11:30:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-0 Lincoln (League One)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-1 Lincoln (League One)
- 2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-0 Lincoln (League One)
- 2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-0 Lincoln (League One)
- 2022-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 3-2 Lincoln (League One)
- 2021-11-23T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 3-0 Lincoln (League One)
- 2021-01-26T19:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 0-1 Lincoln (League One)
- 2020-11-03T19:00:00.000Z · Portsmouth 3-1 Lincoln (League One)
- 2020-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 2-0 Lincoln (League One)
- 2019-10-22T18:45:00.000Z · Portsmouth 1-0 Lincoln (League One)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.