· Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
Purmersteijn vs Dovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Purmersteijn and 1.55 for Dovo, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Purmersteijn the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
Purmersteijn to Win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
2.27 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–26.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Purmersteijn to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Purmersteijn and 1.55 for Dovo, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Purmersteijn to Win is the headline pick at 54% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Purmersteijn
Dovo
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Purmersteijn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hoogeveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ACV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta Nijkerk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sportlust '46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Dovo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Staphorst | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SVZW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Hollandia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | TEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | VV Scherpenzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Eemdijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vvsb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | EVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GOES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.