Racing Montevideo vs Cerro Largo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Racing Montevideo and 1.19 for Cerro Largo, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Racing Montevideo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Racing Montevideo or Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Racing Montevideo win43%

Draw26%

Cerro Largo win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.3%
1–010.4%
2–18.9%
0–18.5%
2–07.5%

Why the model likes this

Cerro Largo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Racing Montevideo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Racing Montevideo and 1.19 for Cerro Largo, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Racing Montevideo

Cerro Largo

2026-08-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Penarol · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Espanol · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-08T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool Montevideo · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	22	13	4	5	16	43
2	Deportivo Maldonado	23	12	6	5	14	42
3	Racing Montevideo	23	11	9	3	10	42
4	Atletico Torque	23	11	5	7	7	38
5	Wanderers	23	11	5	7	4	38
6	Central Espanol	23	10	6	7	2	36
7	Club Nacional	23	11	2	10	4	35
8	Albion FC	24	9	7	8	6	34
9	Liverpool Montevideo	23	8	8	7	3	32
10	Cerro Largo	23	8	5	10	-1	29
11	Defensor Sporting	23	6	9	8	-2	27
12	Boston River	24	7	5	12	-10	26
13	Cerro	24	7	4	13	-18	25
14	Juventud	24	6	6	12	-9	24
15	Danubio	24	4	11	9	-9	23
16	Progreso	23	4	4	15	-17	16
1	Penarol	59	37	10	12	48	121
2	Club Nacional	60	35	12	13	47	114
3	Deportivo Maldonado	23	12	6	5	14	42
4	Liverpool Montevideo	60	26	19	15	17	97
5	Racing Montevideo	60	25	20	15	11	95
6	Central Espanol	23	10	6	7	2	36
7	Defensor Sporting	60	24	16	20	2	88
8	Atletico Torque	60	24	15	21	10	87
9	Albion FC	24	9	7	8	6	34
10	Juventud	61	24	13	24	-3	85
11	Boston River	61	21	18	22	1	81
12	Cerro Largo	60	20	18	22	-1	78
13	Cerro	61	19	15	27	-27	71
14	Wanderers	60	17	18	25	-18	69
15	Danubio	61	14	24	23	-9	66
16	Progreso	60	14	13	33	-39	55
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	9	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	2	11
3	Racing Montevideo	7	2	4	1	1	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	0	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	0	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	-4	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	-3	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	-5	5
1	Wanderers	7	4	3	0	8	15
2	Club Nacional	7	4	1	2	0	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	6	12
4	Atletico Torque	7	4	0	3	0	12
5	Juventud	7	2	2	3	-3	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	-2	6
7	Progreso	7	2	0	5	-5	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	-4	4
1	Racing Montevideo	15	9	4	2	9	31
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	8	29
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	10	28
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	7	27
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	1	24
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	6	23
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	5	22
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	2	21
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	2	20
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	-5	20
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	-4	18
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	-6	17
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	-5	15
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	-11	10
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	-16	10
1	Cerro	2	2	0	0	2	6
2	Boston River	2	1	1	0	1	4
3	Liverpool Montevideo	1	1	0	0	1	3
4	Wanderers	1	1	0	0	1	3
5	Central Espanol	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	Atletico Torque	1	1	0	0	1	3
7	Racing Montevideo	1	0	1	0	0	1
8	Deportivo Maldonado	1	0	1	0	0	1
9	Cerro Largo	1	0	1	0	0	1
10	Juventud	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Danubio	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Penarol	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Club Nacional	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Progreso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Defensor Sporting	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Albion FC	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.