Real Jaén vs Puente Genil Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Real Jaén and 0.63 for Puente Genil, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Real Jaén the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Real Jaén to Win

49.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.18 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Real Jaén win49%

Draw31%

Puente Genil win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.4%
0–016.5%
1–112.1%
2–011.4%
0–110.3%

Why the model likes this

Real Jaén home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Jaén to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 31% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Real Jaén and 0.63 for Puente Genil, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Recent form

Real Jaén

2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-0 (W)

Puente Genil

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Extremadura 1924	34	17	12	5	16	63
2	Deportiva Minera	34	19	6	9	17	63
3	Águilas	34	18	7	9	20	61
4	Xerez	34	17	8	9	8	59
5	Real Jaén	34	16	10	8	10	58
6	Recreativo Huelva	34	16	9	9	16	57
7	Ucam Murcia	34	16	7	11	8	55
8	Linares Deportivo	34	11	14	9	-3	47
9	La Unión Atlético	34	13	6	15	1	45
10	Lorca Deportiva	34	12	9	13	-4	45
11	Yeclano	34	12	8	14	0	44
12	Antoniano	34	12	8	14	-2	44
13	Estepona	34	12	8	14	-4	44
14	Puente Genil	34	10	10	14	-9	40
15	Xerez Deportivo	34	8	12	14	-9	36
16	Melilla	34	7	13	14	-4	34
17	Almería II	34	4	9	21	-27	21
18	Málaga II	34	5	6	23	-34	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.