Rīgas FS vs FK Jablonec Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Rīgas FS and 1.38 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Rīgas FS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Rīgas FS to Win

56.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.20 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rīgas FS win56%

Draw20%

FK Jablonec win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

2–19.3%
1–18.5%
3–16.8%
2–06.8%
2–26.4%

Why the model likes this

Rīgas FS home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rīgas FS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Rīgas FS and 1.38 for FK Jablonec, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 66%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Rīgas FS

2026-08-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Jablonec · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Jablonec · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vestri · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 1-0 (W)

FK Jablonec

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.