Finland · Ykkönen · Group Stage13:00
SalPaLDWLL

01

Saturday, 25 July 2026

PKKUWDDWL

Salon urheilupuisto · Analysis updated 04:35 UTC

SalPa vs PKKU Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for SalPa and 1.57 for PKKU, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives SalPa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

SalPa or Draw

62.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.57

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

SalPa win39%
Draw24%
PKKU win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams to score63%

Correct score

  • 1–110.6%
  • 2–18.4%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 1–06.7%
  • 2–26.6%

Why the model likes this

  • PKKU away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates SalPa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.59 goals for SalPa and 1.57 for PKKU, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

SalPa

    PKKU

    • 2026-08-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku II · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs VJS · 0-0 (D)
    • 2026-07-31T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampere United · 4-4 (D)
    • 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SalPa · 1-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs VJS · 1-3 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Ykkönen table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Tampere United2012532641
    2Rops2010731737
    3OLS208751031
    4PKKU19865830
    5SalPa20866130
    6VJS19784929
    7FC jazz20857129
    8JJK19757626
    9TPV20569-921
    10Inter Turku II19559-1520
    11KPV-j193313-4012
    12KuPS Akatemia192512-1411

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.