San Ignacio vs Derio Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for San Ignacio and 0.95 for Derio, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives San Ignacio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

San Ignacio or Draw

70.1% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.16 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Ignacio win40%

Draw30%

Derio win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–113.4%
0–012.2%
0–111.6%
2–08.1%

Why the model likes this

San Ignacio home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Ignacio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 30% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for San Ignacio and 0.95 for Derio, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

San Ignacio

2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs La Calzada · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés III · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leioa · 1-2 (L)

Derio

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	41	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	16	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	14	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	19	57
5	Touring	34	16	9	9	12	57
6	Real Sociedad III	34	17	4	13	9	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	10	55
8	Aurrerá Vitoria	34	16	7	12	2	54
9	Deportivo Alavés III	34	15	8	11	17	53
10	Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	-5	45
11	Durango	34	11	11	12	-1	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	-13	39
13	Eibar III	34	9	9	16	-9	36
14	Pasaia KE	34	9	9	16	-20	36
15	Añorga	34	11	4	19	-22	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	-17	33
17	Zarautz	34	8	6	20	-30	30
18	Deusto	34	6	8	21	-23	26

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.