Selfoss vs Fjolnir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Selfoss and 2.07 for Fjolnir, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Selfoss to Win

54.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.84 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Selfoss win54%

Draw18%

Fjolnir win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals72%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.4%
2–16.2%
3–26.0%
3–15.8%
1–24.5%

Why the model likes this

Fjolnir away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 18% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for Selfoss and 2.07 for Fjolnir, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 82%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Selfoss

Fjolnir

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 2-6 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-29T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-24T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Magni · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Deild table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haukar	17	12	2	3	21	38
2	Selfoss	17	9	5	3	9	32
3	Kári	17	7	8	2	18	29
4	Fjolnir	17	7	4	6	4	25
5	Vikingur Olafsiik	17	7	4	6	-5	25
6	Kormákur / Hvöt	17	6	6	5	10	24
7	Dalvík / Reynir	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Magni	17	6	3	8	-12	21
9	Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	17	6	2	9	3	20
10	Thróttur Vogar	17	6	1	10	-5	19
11	Hvíti riddarinn	17	3	7	7	-11	16
12	KFG	17	4	1	12	-29	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.