Septemvri Simitli vs Kostinbrod Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Septemvri Simitli and 1.09 for Kostinbrod, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Septemvri Simitli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Septemvri Simitli to Win

54.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Septemvri Simitli win54%

Draw23%

Kostinbrod win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.8%
1–09.9%
2–19.8%
2–09.0%
0–16.0%

Why the model likes this

Septemvri Simitli home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Simitli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Septemvri Simitli and 1.09 for Kostinbrod, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Septemvri Simitli

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasica · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-0 (D)

Kostinbrod

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	2	2	0	0	4	6
2	Septemvri Simitli	2	2	0	0	3	6
3	Septemvri Sofia II	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Bansko	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Strumska Slava	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Belasitsa	2	1	0	1	1	3
7	Levski Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	Botev Ihtiman	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Kostinbrod	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Slavia Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Kyustendil	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Oborishte	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	CSKA Sofia III	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Natsional Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Chavdar Etropole	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Slivnishki geroy	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Balkan Botevgrad	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Pirin Razlog	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.