Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.18 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Sevilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Sevilla or Draw

68.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sevilla win42%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.6%
0–19.0%
2–18.7%
0–07.6%

Why the model likes this

Sevilla home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sevilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Sevilla and 1.18 for Celta Vigo, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sevilla

2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)

Celta Vigo

2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.