Slavia Sofia II vs Chavdar Etropole Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Slavia Sofia II and 0.88 for Chavdar Etropole, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Slavia Sofia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Slavia Sofia II to Win

50.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Slavia Sofia II win51%

Draw27%

Chavdar Etropole win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–112.4%
2–010.3%
0–09.6%
2–19.0%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Sofia II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Slavia Sofia II and 0.88 for Chavdar Etropole, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Model confidence
Slavia Sofia II to Win is the headline pick at 51% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Slavia Sofia II

Chavdar Etropole

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	35	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	26	65
3	Slavia Sofia II	34	17	6	11	24	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	13	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	-3	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	6	50
7	Oborishte	34	14	7	13	6	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	5	49
9	Septemvri Sofia II	34	13	9	12	7	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	1	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	-4	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	-5	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	-6	44
14	Slivnishki geroy	34	11	9	14	-9	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	-14	40
16	Pirin Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	-27	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	-37	18
18	Vitosha Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	-18	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.