Aberdeen Sports Ground · Analysis updated 03:21 UTC
Southern District vs Kowloon City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Southern District and 1.22 for Kowloon City, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Southern District the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
Southern District to Win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.1%
Why the model likes this
Kowloon City away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southern District to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Southern District and 1.22 for Kowloon City, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Southern District
Kowloon City
- 2026-05-16T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Hong Kong FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs BC Rangers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Southern District · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern District · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Southern District · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitchee | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 50 |
| 2 | Warriors | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 36 |
| 3 | North District | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 31 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 31 |
| 5 | Eastern | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | Kowloon City | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 21 |
| 7 | Eastern District | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | Southern District | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -10 | 18 |
| 9 | BC Rangers | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 17 |
| 10 | Hong Kong FC | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | -41 | 4 |
| 1 | Kitchee | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 52 |
| 2 | Wofoo Tai Po | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 43 |
| 3 | Warriors | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 42 |
| 4 | North District | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 5 | Eastern | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 32 |
| 1 | Kowloon City | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -11 | 28 |
| 2 | Southern District | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 25 |
| 3 | Eastern District | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -2 | 21 |
| 4 | BC Rangers | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -18 | 21 |
| 5 | Hong Kong FC | 22 | 3 | 2 | 17 | -42 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.