Spakenburg vs Sparta Rotterdam II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Spakenburg and 1.96 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined total of 4.84. That distribution gives Spakenburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Spakenburg to Win

57.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.88 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spakenburg win57%

Draw17%

Sparta Rotterdam II win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals71%

Both teams to score81%

Correct score

2–16.4%
2–26.3%
3–16.2%
3–26.0%
1–14.5%

Why the model likes this

Spakenburg home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spakenburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 17% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Spakenburg and 1.96 for Sparta Rotterdam II, a combined 4.84 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Spakenburg

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Koninklijke HFC · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Katwijk · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 0-0 (D)

Sparta Rotterdam II

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Quick Boys	34	19	10	5	34	66
2	De Treffers	34	18	9	7	27	63
3	Hoek	34	19	6	9	23	63
4	Rijnsburgse Boys	34	16	8	10	21	56
5	HHC	34	17	5	12	14	56
6	Spakenburg	34	16	8	10	12	56
7	Katwijk	34	15	7	12	5	52
8	Almere City II	34	15	5	14	8	50
9	Kozakken Boys	34	13	8	13	-8	47
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	34	12	9	13	-2	45
11	AFC Amsterdam	34	12	9	13	-8	45
12	Barendrecht	34	13	4	17	-22	43
13	RKAV Volendam	34	13	3	18	-12	42
14	GVVV Veenendaal	34	12	6	16	-15	42
15	Koninklijke HFC	34	12	3	19	-16	39
16	Ijsselmeervogels	34	9	4	21	-19	31
17	Excelsior Maassluis	34	8	7	19	-19	31
18	ACV	34	7	9	18	-23	30

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.