Sparta Rotterdam II vs Jong AZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam II and 1.32 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Jong AZ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Jong AZ to Win

45.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.32

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Rotterdam II win26%

Draw28%

Jong AZ win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.0%
1–112.9%
0–010.5%
1–09.7%
0–29.3%

Why the model likes this

Sparta Rotterdam II home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jong AZ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 28% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Sparta Rotterdam II and 1.32 for Jong AZ, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Recent form

Sparta Rotterdam II

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 1-1 (D)

Jong AZ

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.