· Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Sporting CP vs FC Porto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.61 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives FC Porto the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
FC Porto or Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.0%
Why the model likes this
Sporting CP home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Porto to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Sporting CP and 1.61 for FC Porto, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Sporting CP
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 7-0 (W)
FC Porto
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rio Ave · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alverca · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.