Donaustadion · Analysis updated 02:49 UTC
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SGV Freiberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 2.67 for SGV Freiberg, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.
Model pick
SGV Freiberg to Win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 2.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.8%
- 1–16.5%
- 0–36.0%
Why the model likes this
SGV Freiberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 17% / 17% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 2.67 for SGV Freiberg, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
SSV Ulm 1846
SGV Freiberg
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-07-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 2 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Kickers Offenbach | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | SV Sandhausen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Hessen Kassel | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 8 | TSV Steinbach | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | VfR Aalen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | FSV Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | VfR Mannheim | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Freiburg II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Kaiserslautern II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 15 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Eintracht Trier | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.