· Analysis updated 04:21 UTC
Stenungsund vs Herrestads Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.44 expected goals for Stenungsund and 1.53 for Herrestads, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Stenungsund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws roughly 42% of the time.
Model pick
Stenungsund to Win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.44 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.6%
Why the model likes this
Herrestads away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stenungsund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.44 goals for Stenungsund and 1.53 for Herrestads, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Recent form
Stenungsund
Herrestads
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Skövde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Vänersborgs FK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-26T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skara · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Skövde · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 45 |
| 2 | Skara | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 30 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 29 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 25 |
| 7 | Herrestads | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 8 | Motala | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Kumla | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 16 |
| 11 | Tord | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Lidköping | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 12 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -13 | 10 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | -25 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.