· Analysis updated 02:56 UTC
Stourbridge vs Leiston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Stourbridge and 0.93 for Leiston, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Stourbridge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.
Model pick
Stourbridge to Win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Leiston away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stourbridge to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Stourbridge and 0.93 for Leiston, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Stourbridge
Leiston
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorleston · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Kettering Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Stourbridge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Leighton Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Racing Club Warwick | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Banbury United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Halesowen Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Needham Market | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Stratford Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Hitchin Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Leamington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 19 | Worcester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Peterborough Sports | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Bishop's Stortford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Stamford | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.