Strasbourg vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Strasbourg and 2.10 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Estac Troyes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Estac Troyes to Win

53.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Strasbourg win25%

Draw21%

Estac Troyes win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–29.3%
1–18.9%
0–26.7%
1–36.5%
2–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Strasbourg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estac Troyes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estac Troyes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Strasbourg and 2.10 for Estac Troyes, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Strasbourg

2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Elversberg · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-01T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 3-4 (L)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-20T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 0-7 (L)

Estac Troyes

2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenoble · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.