Super Nova 2 vs Riga Mariners Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Super Nova 2 and 1.88 for Riga Mariners, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Riga Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Riga Mariners to Win

52.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Super Nova 2 win25%

Draw23%

Riga Mariners win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.7%
0–18.4%
0–27.9%
2–16.3%

Why the model likes this

Super Nova 2 home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 23% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Super Nova 2 and 1.88 for Riga Mariners, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Super Nova 2

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga Mariners · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JDFS Alberts · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga FC II · 1-2 (L)

Riga Mariners

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.