Kazakhstan · 1. Division · Regular Season - 2213:00
TarazDLWWD

13:00 UTC

Friday, 11 September 2026

Khan TengriDLLLL

Central Stadium · Analysis updated 05:19 UTC

Taraz vs Khan Tengri Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Taraz and 0.91 for Khan Tengri, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Taraz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Taraz to Win

54.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.64 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Taraz win55%
Draw25%
Khan Tengri win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams to score48%

Correct score

  • 1–012.8%
  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–010.5%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 0–07.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Taraz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.64 goals for Taraz and 0.91 for Khan Tengri, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Taraz to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Taraz

    Khan Tengri

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      1. Division table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Shakhter Karagandy1816114449
      2Sport Academy Kairat1813414643
      3Turan Turkistan1812242438
      4Akademiya Ontustik18936530
      5Astana II18828-426
      6Jaiyq18828-526
      7Ekibastuz18756-726
      8Taraz18738024
      9Kaspij Aktau 218738-424
      10Khan Tengri185310-1318
      11Aktobe Jas18459-2917
      12Arys184212-1914
      13Yelimay Semey 2183312-1812
      14Tobol 2182412-2010

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.