Estadio Jose Dellagiovanna · Referee Carlos Andres Gariano, Argentina · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC
Tigre vs River Plate Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Tigre and 0.80 for River Plate, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Tigre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Tigre or Draw
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–016.5%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.2%
- 2–07.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 33% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Tigre and 0.80 for River Plate, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 34%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Model confidence
Tigre or Draw is the headline pick at 71% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Tigre
River Plate
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T00:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.