Ucam Murcia vs Real Jaén Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ucam Murcia and 1.18 for Real Jaén, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Ucam Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Ucam Murcia or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ucam Murcia win44%

Draw26%

Real Jaén win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Ucam Murcia home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Jaén away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ucam Murcia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ucam Murcia and 1.18 for Real Jaén, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Ucam Murcia

2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Jaén · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs La Unión Atlético · 1-4 (L)
2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Málaga II · 4-0 (W)
2026-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 0-2 (L)

Real Jaén

2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · Ucam Murcia 1-2 Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-12-14T16:00:00.000Z · Ucam Murcia 3-0 Real Jaén (Segunda División RFEF - Group 4)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.