Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.60 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Valerenga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Valerenga or Draw

65.1% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Valerenga win43%

Draw23%

Ham-Kam win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.6%
1–27.8%
2–26.9%
1–06.1%

Why the model likes this

Valerenga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valerenga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Valerenga and 1.60 for Ham-Kam, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Valerenga

2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)

Ham-Kam

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	31	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	23	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	15	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	2	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	5	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	6	22
8	Sarpsborg 08 FF	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.