Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.28 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Vancouver Whitecaps the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.

Model pick

Vancouver Whitecaps to Win

54.9% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vancouver Whitecaps win55%

Draw21%

San Jose Earthquakes win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.5%
2–07.6%
1–07.4%
3–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Vancouver Whitecaps home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vancouver Whitecaps to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps and 1.28 for San Jose Earthquakes, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Vancouver Whitecaps

2026-08-12T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T02:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Juarez · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-05T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlante FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Los Angeles FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Minnesota United FC · 0-0 (D)

San Jose Earthquakes

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	4	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
3	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	20	5	7	8	-6	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	24	43
2	Inter Miami	19	11	5	3	10	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	4	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	Charlotte	19	8	4	7	4	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	1	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	-11	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	-3	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	-17	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	-7	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	-11	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Atlanta United FC	19	4	3	12	-13	15

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.