Estádio São Januário · Referee Anderson Daronco, Brazil · Analysis updated 04:37 UTC
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.32 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Atletico-MG or Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.0%
Why the model likes this
Vasco DA Gama home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico-MG away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 35% / 27% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.32 for Atletico-MG, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Vasco DA Gama
- 2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)
Atletico-MG
- 2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 48 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 38 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 6 | Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 33 |
| 7 | RB Bragantino | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 8 | Corinthians | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | -2 | 31 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 29 |
| 12 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Gremio | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco DA Gama | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 22 |
| 19 | Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | -23 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.