Vasco DA Gama vs Internacional Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.00 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Vasco DA Gama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.

Model pick

Vasco DA Gama or Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Vasco DA Gama win38%

Draw30%

Internacional win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.5%
0–012.2%
0–112.2%
2–07.4%

Why the model likes this

Vasco DA Gama home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Internacional away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Vasco DA Gama

2026-08-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bahia · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Fluminense · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 1-0 (W)

Internacional

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Corinthians · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-29T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Paranaense · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T21:30:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-4 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-11-28T22:30:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 5-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2025-07-27T21:30:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2024-11-21T23:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2024-07-07T21:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Internacional (Serie A)
2023-10-27T22:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2023-06-11T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2021-02-14T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2020-10-18T21:15:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 0-2 Internacional (Serie A)
2019-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Internacional (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.