· Analysis updated 05:18 UTC
Vitória SC vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.52 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Benfica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws roughly 62% of the time.
Model pick
Benfica or Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–07.3%
Why the model likes this
Vitória SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Vitória SC and 1.52 for Benfica, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 3-1 (W)
Benfica
- 2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Academico Viseu · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-11-01T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-04-19T19:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-12-07T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-1 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-02-11T20:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 2-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-09-02T19:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-4 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2023-03-18T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 1-5 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-10-01T19:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2022-02-27T18:00:00.000Z · Vitória SC 0-3 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-10-27T18:30:00.000Z · Vitória SC 3-3 Benfica (Taça da Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.