· Analysis updated 05:15 UTC
Vitória SC vs Estoril Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Vitória SC and 1.35 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Estoril the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Estoril or Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
Why the model likes this
Vitória SC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estoril away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Estoril to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Vitória SC and 1.35 for Estoril, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Vitória SC
- 2026-08-14T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arouca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 3-1 (W)
Estoril
- 2026-08-07T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Famalicao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alverca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético CP · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.