Koning Willem II Stadion · Referee Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands · Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Willem II and 2.14 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
NEC Nijmegen to Win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–28.0%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–36.9%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates NEC Nijmegen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 21% / 21% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Willem II and 2.14 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
NEC Nijmegen to Win is the headline pick at 59% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 4.75 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 4.35 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 1.59 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.13 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 5.75 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.70 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.10 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.70 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 3.45 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 5.5 | 6.25 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 5.5 | 1.11 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.48 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 2.45 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 2.30 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Willem II
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.