Beirut Municipal Stadium · Analysis updated 02:53 UTC
Al Ahed vs Jwaaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Al Ahed and 1.17 for Jwaaya FC, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Jwaaya FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.
Model pick
Jwaaya FC or Draw
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–27.8%
Why the model likes this
Jwaaya FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jwaaya FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Al Ahed and 1.17 for Jwaaya FC, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Al Ahed
Jwaaya FC
- 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ansar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ansar · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 21 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 44 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 46 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaaya FC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 38 |
| 5 | Safa | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 36 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 27 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -24 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -14 | 17 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 21 | 0 | 1 | 20 | -57 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.