Lebanon · Premier League · Championship Round - 218:30
Al AnsarWWDDW

20

Thursday, 16 July 2026

Jwaaya FCDLLWL

Beirut Municipal Stadium · Analysis updated 02:54 UTC

Al Ansar vs Jwaaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Al Ansar and 0.63 for Jwaaya FC, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Al Ansar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 39% of the time.

Model pick

Al Ansar to Win

61.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.62 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Al Ansar win62%
Draw24%
Jwaaya FC win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

39%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams to score37%

Correct score

  • 1–017.1%
  • 2–013.9%
  • 1–110.7%
  • 0–010.6%
  • 2–18.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Al Ansar home form

    11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Jwaaya FC away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Al Ansar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 24% / 14% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.62 goals for Al Ansar and 0.63 for Jwaaya FC, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Al Ansar

  • 2026-08-02T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Jwaaya FC · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Nejmeh · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Jwaaya FC · 2-0 (W)

Jwaaya FC

  • 2026-08-01T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahed · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ansar · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ansar · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Ansar2117224453
2Al Nejmeh2114433246
3Al Ahed2113171240
4Jwaaya FC2111551738
5Safa2111371336
6Al Hikma21939230
7Shabab Al Sahel21768127
8Al Mabarrah21579-2422
9Reyady Abaseya215511-1420
10Tadamon Sour213810-1417
11Bourj11317-1210
12Racing210120-571

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.