Estadio Mendizorrotza · Analysis updated 07:07 UTC
Alaves vs Sevilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Alaves and 1.21 for Sevilla, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
Alaves to Win
52.3% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–26.4%
Why the model likes this
Alaves home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Alaves and 1.21 for Sevilla, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Alaves
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
Sevilla
- 2026-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.