Aliağa FAŞ vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Aliağa FAŞ and 0.76 for Arnavutköy Belediyespor, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Aliağa FAŞ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws roughly 36% of the time.

Model pick

Aliağa FAŞ to Win

64.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.90 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Aliağa FAŞ win64%

Draw21%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.3%
2–012.6%
1–110.1%
2–19.6%
3–08.0%

Why the model likes this

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aliağa FAŞ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Aliağa FAŞ and 0.76 for Arnavutköy Belediyespor, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Aliağa FAŞ

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Isparta 32 Spor · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Adanaspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Muş Sport Klübü · 1-2 (L)
2026-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu · 3-0 (W)
2026-03-28T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1461 Trabzon FK · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Batman Petrolspor	36	25	8	3	53	83
2	Muğlaspor	36	21	9	6	32	72
3	Elazığspor	36	21	6	9	45	69
4	Adana 01 FK	36	19	10	7	20	67
5	Şanlıurfaspor	36	19	8	9	20	65
6	Ankaragücü	36	18	9	9	11	63
7	İnegölspor	36	16	12	8	23	60
8	İskenderunspor	36	16	8	12	6	56
9	Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı	36	13	15	8	10	54
10	Ankaraspor	36	13	13	10	10	52
11	24 Erzincanspor	36	15	6	15	6	51
12	Kastamonuspor	36	11	9	16	-12	42
13	Karacabey Belediyespor	36	11	8	17	-9	41
14	Altınordu	36	8	11	17	-26	35
15	Erbaaspor	36	10	7	19	-21	34
16	Beykoz Anadolu	36	8	6	22	-29	30
17	Kepezspor	36	5	8	23	-45	23
18	Karaman FK	36	4	9	23	-56	21
19	Bucaspor 1928	36	4	8	24	-38	17
1	Bursaspor	34	25	5	4	68	80
2	Mardin 1969	34	22	5	7	42	71
3	Muş Sport Klübü	34	21	7	6	47	70
4	Aliağa FAŞ	34	21	6	7	49	69
5	Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor	34	21	4	9	49	67
6	Isparta 32 Spor	34	18	9	7	34	63
7	Güzide Gebzespor	34	16	10	8	25	58
8	Menemen FK	34	15	6	13	6	51
9	Ankara Demirspor	34	14	7	13	0	49
10	68 Aksaray Belediyespor	34	11	14	9	14	47
11	1461 Trabzon FK	34	13	8	13	3	47
12	Arnavutköy Belediyespor	34	13	7	14	4	46
13	Fethiyespor	34	11	11	12	11	44
14	Kırklarelispor	34	9	9	16	-5	36
15	Somaspor	34	8	6	20	-27	30
16	Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu	33	4	3	26	-75	12
17	Adanaspor	34	3	1	30	-142	1
18	Yeni Malatyaspor	33	0	2	31	-103	-52

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.