· Referee A. Narciso · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Arouca and 1.18 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Arouca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Arouca to Win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.0%
- 0–17.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arouca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Arouca and 1.18 for Moreirense, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Arouca to Win is the headline pick at 48% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Arouca
Moreirense
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Academico Viseu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.