Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.73 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Arsenal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 31% of the time.

Model pick

Arsenal to Win

69.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.12 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arsenal win70%

Draw19%

Newcastle win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

2–012.9%
1–012.2%
2–19.5%
3–09.2%
1–19.0%

Why the model likes this

Arsenal home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newcastle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arsenal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Arsenal and 0.73 for Newcastle, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Arsenal

2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)

Newcastle

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-25T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	44	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	42	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	19	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	7	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	10	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	4	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	-6	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	6	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	3	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	6	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	-4	52
12	Newcastle	38	14	7	17	-2	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	-3	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	-7	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	-10	45
16	Nottingham Forest	38	11	11	16	-3	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	-9	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	-19	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	-37	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	-41	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.