Ascoli vs Carrarese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.18 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Ascoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Ascoli or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ascoli win44%

Draw26%

Carrarese win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Ascoli home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ascoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ascoli and 1.18 for Carrarese, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Ascoli

2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 1-1 (D)

Carrarese

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.