Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.64 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico Madrid to Win

49.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Athletic Club win26%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.6%
0–110.2%
1–29.5%
0–28.4%
1–07.1%

Why the model likes this

Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Athletic Club and 1.64 for Atletico Madrid, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Athletic Club

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-2 (D)

Atletico Madrid

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	59	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	42	86
3	Villarreal	38	22	6	10	26	72
4	Atletico Madrid	38	21	6	11	18	69
5	Real Betis	38	15	15	8	11	60
6	Celta Vigo	38	14	12	12	5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	51
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	49
10	Real Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	46
11	Espanyol	38	12	10	16	-12	46
12	Athletic Club	38	13	6	19	-15	45
13	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	43
15	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	43
16	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	42
17	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	42
18	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	29

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.