Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.75 for Tristan Suarez, a combined total of 1.28. That distribution gives Tristan Suarez the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico DE Rafaela or Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

0.53 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico DE Rafaela win23%

Draw40%

Tristan Suarez win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

60%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals37%

Over 2.5 goals14%

Over 3.5 goals4%

Both teams to score22%

Correct score

0–027.8%
0–120.9%
1–014.7%
1–111.1%
0–27.8%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 23% / 40% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.53 goals for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.75 for Tristan Suarez, a combined 1.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 14% and both teams to score at 22%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%.
Model confidence
Atletico DE Rafaela or Draw is the headline pick at 63% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Atletico DE Rafaela

Tristan Suarez

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera Nacional table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	25	15	4	6	8	49
2	Deportivo Moron	24	13	5	6	17	44
3	Colon Santa Fe	25	11	9	5	13	42
4	Almirante Brown	24	10	8	6	6	38
5	Godoy Cruz	23	10	7	6	7	37
6	Deportivo Madryn	23	9	9	5	8	36
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	25	8	10	7	-1	34
8	Los Andes	23	8	9	6	9	33
9	CA Estudiantes	24	8	8	8	0	32
10	Racing Cordoba	24	8	6	10	-5	30
11	Atletico Mitre	25	6	11	8	-4	29
12	San Miguel	24	6	11	7	-4	29
13	Defensores De Belgrano	24	5	11	8	-5	26
14	All Boys	24	4	12	8	-9	24
15	San Telmo	23	5	8	10	-6	23
16	Central Norte	23	5	8	10	-9	23
17	Chaco For Ever	23	5	7	11	-7	22
18	Acassuso	24	5	7	12	-11	22
1	Tristan Suarez	23	11	9	3	11	42
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	24	12	5	7	6	41
3	Atlanta	24	12	3	9	5	39
4	Midland	24	10	8	6	9	38
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	24	10	7	7	4	37
6	Temperley	24	9	10	5	3	37
7	Atletico DE Rafaela	25	9	8	8	-1	35
8	Deportivo Maipu	24	9	5	10	5	32
9	San Martin Tucuman	24	7	10	7	2	31
10	Colegiales	24	8	6	10	-2	30
11	Almagro	25	8	6	11	-8	30
12	Quilmes	24	7	8	9	3	29
13	Nueva Chicago	23	7	8	8	-2	29
14	Agropecuario	25	7	8	10	-6	29
15	San Martin S.J.	22	7	7	8	0	28
16	Chacarita Juniors	23	7	5	11	-6	26
17	Patronato	24	4	12	8	-8	24
18	Club Atlético Güemes	24	5	5	14	-22	20

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.