Metropolitano Stadium · Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.41 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Alaves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Alaves or Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Atletico Madrid home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alaves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.41 for Alaves, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)
Alaves
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-31T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.