Metropolitano Stadium · Analysis updated 05:52 UTC
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.93 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid to Win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–07.1%
Why the model likes this
Atletico Madrid home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.93 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)
Athletic Club
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.