Atletico-MG vs Santos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 1.25 for Santos, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico-MG to Win

49.8% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win50%

Draw23%

Santos win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.6%
1–08.6%
2–07.6%
1–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Atletico-MG home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico-MG to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Atletico-MG and 1.25 for Santos, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)

Santos

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
10	Coritiba	22	8	6	8	-2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	21	7	5	9	1	26
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.