Q2 Stadium · Referee J. Freemon · Analysis updated 06:09 UTC
Austin vs St. Louis City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Austin and 1.61 for St. Louis City, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives St. Louis City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
St. Louis City to Win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
Why the model likes this
Austin home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Louis City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Louis City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Austin and 1.61 for St. Louis City, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Austin
- 2026-08-14T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Tijuana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Colorado Rapids · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dynamo · 0-3 (L)
St. Louis City
- 2026-08-02T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Rapids · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-23T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Los Angeles Galaxy · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Austin · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 24 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | -30 | 14 |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 19 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 29 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 21 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -7 | 20 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -11 | 17 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -13 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.