Netherlands · Derde Divisie · Regular Season - 212:00

12:00 UTC

Sunday, 23 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:46 UTC

Blauw Geel vs Rijnvogels Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Blauw Geel and 1.71 for Rijnvogels, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Rijnvogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Rijnvogels or Draw

61.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Blauw Geel win39%
Draw23%
Rijnvogels win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams to score67%

Correct score

  • 1–19.6%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–18.2%
  • 2–27.0%
  • 0–15.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Rijnvogels away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rijnvogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.70 goals for Blauw Geel and 1.71 for Rijnvogels, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Blauw Geel

    Rijnvogels

    • 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-06-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-1 (W)
    • 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 2-2 (D)
    • 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 1-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Derde Divisie table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Excelsior '31110043
    2Purmersteijn110023
    3Hoogeveen110013
    4Harkemase Boys110013
    5SC Genemuiden110013
    6ACV110013
    7Sparta Nijkerk101001
    8Sportlust '46101001
    9Dovo101001
    10Staphorst101001
    11ADO '20000000
    12Hercules000000
    13SVZW1001-10
    14Hollandia1001-10
    15DVS 33 Ermelo1001-10
    16TEC1001-10
    17VV Scherpenzeel1001-20
    18Eemdijk1001-40
    1Dongen110043
    2FC Lisse110033
    3Noordwijk110023
    4Vvsb110013
    5Gemert101001
    6Rijnvogels101001
    7Excelsior Maassluis101001
    8UDI '19101001
    9Roosendaal000000
    10EVV000000
    11Groene Ster000000
    12UNA000000
    13GOES000000
    14TOGB000000
    15Poortugaal1001-10
    16Blauw Geel1001-20
    17Achilles Veen1001-30
    18Zwaluwen1001-40

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.