Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 222:00

1 – 0

Wednesday, 5 August 2026

Alberto Jose Armando · Referee Nazareno Arasa, Argentina · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for Estudiantes L.P., a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Boca Juniors the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Boca Juniors or Draw

70.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Boca Juniors win42%

Draw29%

Estudiantes L.P. win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–013.2%
0–110.6%
0–010.6%
2–18.2%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Juniors to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Boca Juniors and 1.00 for Estudiantes L.P., a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Boca Juniors or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Boca Juniors

Estudiantes L.P.

2026-08-12T00:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-26T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Estudiantes L.P.	16	9	4	3	12	31
2	Boca Juniors	16	8	6	2	13	30
3	Velez Sarsfield	16	7	7	2	6	28
4	Talleres Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
5	Independiente	16	6	6	4	4	24
6	Lanus	16	6	6	4	3	24
7	San Lorenzo	16	5	7	4	0	22
8	Union Santa Fe	16	5	6	5	4	21
9	Instituto Cordoba	16	6	3	7	0	21
10	Defensa Y Justicia	16	4	7	5	-3	19
11	Gimnasia M.	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Platense	16	3	7	6	-5	16
13	Central Cordoba de Santiago	16	4	4	8	-10	16
14	Newells Old Boys	16	3	6	7	-12	15
15	Deportivo Riestra	16	1	8	7	-7	11
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	10	4	2	14	34
2	River Plate	16	9	2	5	10	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	8	5	3	4	29
4	Rosario Central	16	8	4	4	4	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	7	5	4	4	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	8	2	6	0	26
7	Huracan	16	5	7	4	4	22
8	Racing Club	16	5	6	5	2	21
9	Barracas Central	16	5	6	5	0	21
10	Tigre	16	4	8	4	3	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	6	1	9	-7	19
12	Banfield	16	5	3	8	-2	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	3	5	8	-5	14
14	Aldosivi	16	0	8	8	-13	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	1	2	13	-19	5
1	Velez Sarsfield	4	3	1	0	4	10
2	Instituto Cordoba	4	3	0	1	2	9
3	Defensa Y Justicia	4	2	1	1	-1	7
4	Deportivo Riestra	4	2	0	2	3	6
5	Lanus	4	2	0	2	2	6
6	Independiente	4	2	0	2	1	6
7	Gimnasia M.	4	2	0	2	1	6
8	Central Cordoba de Santiago	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	San Lorenzo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
10	Boca Juniors	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Newells Old Boys	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Union Santa Fe	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Platense	4	1	1	2	-4	4
14	Talleres Cordoba	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	Estudiantes L.P.	4	1	0	3	-2	3
1	Argentinos JRS	4	4	0	0	6	12
2	Gimnasia L.P.	4	3	0	1	3	9
3	Barracas Central	4	3	0	1	1	9
4	Tigre	5	2	2	1	2	8
5	Belgrano Cordoba	4	2	1	1	2	7
6	Huracan	4	2	1	1	2	7
7	Independ. Rivadavia	4	2	1	1	1	7
8	Rosario Central	4	2	1	1	1	7
9	Banfield	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Sarmiento Junin	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Atletico Tucuman	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Racing Club	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Aldosivi	5	0	2	3	-3	2
15	River Plate	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.