Ashton Gate Stadium · Analysis updated 04:34 UTC
Bristol City vs QPR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Bristol City and 1.64 for QPR, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives QPR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws roughly 53% of the time.
Model pick
QPR to Win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–17.1%
Why the model likes this
Bristol City home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates QPR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Bristol City and 1.64 for QPR, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Bristol City
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Walsall · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 4-1 (W)
QPR
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.