CA Estudiantes vs Deportivo Madryn Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for CA Estudiantes and 1.18 for Deportivo Madryn, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives CA Estudiantes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

CA Estudiantes or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

CA Estudiantes win44%

Draw26%

Deportivo Madryn win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

CA Estudiantes home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CA Estudiantes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for CA Estudiantes and 1.18 for Deportivo Madryn, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

CA Estudiantes

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Madryn · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensores De Belgrano · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Bolívar · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almirante Brown · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Mitre · 3-0 (W)

Deportivo Madryn

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · CA Estudiantes 0-1 Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional)
2026-03-21T22:00:00.000Z · CA Estudiantes 0-3 Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional)
2023-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · CA Estudiantes 1-1 Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional)
2023-04-16T18:30:00.000Z · CA Estudiantes 0-3 Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional)
2022-04-09T21:10:00.000Z · CA Estudiantes 0-0 Deportivo Madryn (Primera Nacional)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.